Trump Winning the 2024 Election Could Spell Trouble for China
An analyst has warned that if former President Donald Trump were to win the 2024 election, it would create a “nightmare” for China, particularly in relation to Taiwan’s president-elect William Lai Ching-te. Lai, whose election victory was announced on Saturday, has expressed a commitment to maintaining resistance to Beijing while upholding the cross-strait status quo. This stance, coupled with Trump’s unpredictable style of leadership, has fueled concerns among Chinese officials. Rorry Daniels, of the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis, stated that China would view both Lai and Trump as unpredictable in their approach to the nation’s use of power.
China’s anxiety is further compounded by the possible return of former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who has been outspoken in his support for Taiwan. He previously referred to Taiwan as a “sovereign country,” a statement that enraged China, even before President Xi Jinping’s tenure. The combination of Lai, Trump, and Pompeo in positions of power could spell real trouble for China, as their policies and rhetoric regarding Taiwan indicate a hardened stance towards Beijing.
It is currently unclear how a potential second Trump presidency would play out, but analysts suggest that his transactional style and inconsistent follow-through on policies could make him an unreliable ally in the eyes of China. Although he is popular in Taiwan and Hong Kong for what is perceived as strength against China, Trump’s previous actions, such as suggesting that the US would abandon the “one China policy,” have caused strain in cross-strait relations.
Beijing’s Worst-Case Scenario
For Beijing, the worst-case scenario is not Lai winning the presidency of Taiwan, but the combination of Lai and Trump returning to power. The pairing of two leaders who are perceived as unpredictable poses a significant challenge for China’s influence in the world. China’s response to the potential threat posed by this alliance remains uncertain, but it is likely to intensify tensions between the US, Taiwan, and China.
